Monday, November 23, 2009

Post COP15

The upcoming UN meeting in Copenhagen is the fifteenth meeting on climate change but it is not the last. The US Senate's inability to pass climate change legislation before international negotiations begin at COP15 is not the end of the process.

The Senate's inaction may be profoundly dissapointing, however, at COP15 in December the world can still reach an agreement on the architecture of a binding global treaty. The remaining details can be worked out later.

The process will be extended after COP15, as it was in July of 2001 prior to the signing of the Kyoto protocol. The Kyoto Accord required ongoing multilateral and bilateral negotiations after the sixth UNFCCC meeting.

The logic driving an international agreement on climate change mitigation is irrefutable. Whether in December of 2009, or as is now more likely, some time in 2010, negotiators will convene to find a binding deal that commits all nations to greenhouse gas reductions.

Political action in the US is crucial but we are rapidly running out of time. However, there is some progress being made in America. The Obama administration is working towards serious emissions reductions and despite a boycott by Republican senators, the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee approved the US climate change bill by a vote of 10-1. The passage of climate change legislation in the full senate can still pave the way to a post Kyoto deal in 2010.

COP15 is but the latest climate convention on a long and winding road. The process of structuring an international climate change agreement will continue.

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The State of Climate Change Negotiations
Global Cooperation Ahead of COP 15
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Anonymous said...

"The logic driving an international agreement on climate change mitigation is irrefutable."

My friend, nothing is irrefutable except religious dogma and scientific , provable fact. Plus of course, teenage invincibility and surety.

Those who make such statements have become true believers, dogmatic zealots to whom nothing can be said, so i won't try.

But ask yourself two simple questions if you have any humility at all:

What if I am wrong?
What if I am right? or more helpfully, What if greenies win? What happens if Copenhagen is signed?

Take your time, think deeply, use your imagination. Ask an engineer about what is required by major reduction, sequestration. Think politically, environmentally, economically and winners/losers? Also, think why I would now oppose this treaty having once been a member of your greenie ranks and still a demonstrable supporter of a lesser footprint.

The Green Market Oracle said...

Science gives us our best and most rational approach to determining what is or is not "irrefutable."

(Please see numerous GREEN MARKET articles on the "science of climate change")

My understanding is driven by science and my solutions are framed in both economic and political terms.

(Please see numerous GREEN MARKET articles on the economics and politics of climate change)